Bitcoin Traders Bet on Sub-$100K Slide: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin’s fate hangs in the balance as U.S. stagflation fears grip the crypto market. On Polymarket, a decentralized crystal ball, traders are betting big: a chilling 50%+ chance for the original cryptocurrency’s downturn.

BTC

$114,321.68

prices dropping into five figures before year-end.

Polymarket bettors are putting their money where their mouth is: Bitcoin dipping below $100,000 by 2026? A 55% chance, says the market, with “Yes” shares trading at 55 cents. Is this just speculative froth, or a rational response to the latest economic signals?

“Forget soft landings; the economic data is hinting at something far more jarring. Manufacturing and services sectors are already underperforming even the gloomiest predictions, suggesting the jobs market isn’t just cooling it could be headed for a cliff,” warns Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.

“Brace yourselves: a data tsunami is brewing. Factor in economic impact, and those survey whispers become a deafening roar – Non-Farm Payrolls could plummet by over 100,000. Forget ‘soft landing’; this is a freefall. The sting in the tail? Inflation refuses to budge where it hurts most.”

Whispers of a Fed rate cut are growing louder, music to the ears of some crypto bulls. But is this siren song of easing monetary policy a genuine boon, or a warning bell signaling economic storms that could ultimately capsize the digital asset market? The jury’s still out.

Lower interest rates typically make high-risk investments alluring, but Wall Street smells trouble. Innes notes momentum traders are ditching their positions, signaling a shift towards selling. Bitcoin feels the chill too; Deribit’s short-term “puts” (bets on a price drop) now outprice “calls,” a clear sign fear grips the market.

Bitcoin at $100K by year-end? Maybe not. Options traders are throwing shade on that possibility, disagreeing with Polymarket’s higher odds. December $100K puts are trading with a -0.25 delta – basically, options-speak for “unlikely to happen.” Think of delta as a profit-probability meter; in this case, it’s leaning heavily towards “dream on.”

Ethereum’s future just brightened. The SEC’s recent clarification – staking isn’t necessarily a securities offering – paves the way for spot ether ETFs that reward holders with more ether. Imagine ETH as the internet’s next bond, generating yield and primed for mainstream adoption.

Beyond Bitcoin’s and Ether’s relative stability, the altcoin landscape painted a less rosy picture. The CoinDesk 80 Index, a broader gauge of the altcoin market, slumped 2.9% in the last 24 hours, outpacing the CoinDesk 20 Index’s 2.3% dip and hinting at a divergence in performance between established cryptos and their riskier counterparts.

Hold on to your hats, crypto enthusiasts! Japan’s banking behemoth, SBI, just dropped a bombshell: a new ETF linked to Bitcoin and XRP. Meanwhile, whispers from the Metamask cryptosphere hint at a daring new venture – a “MetaMask USD” stablecoin. Word is, they’re teaming up with Stripe’s payment prowess to make it happen. Could this be the dawn of a decentralized dollar in your digital wallet?

Wall Street’s pulse quickens: S&P 500 futures hint at a slightly green dawn, up 0.2%. The dollar holds its breath, stuck near 98.70. Keep your eyes peeled – the opening bell is about to ring.

What to Watch

• CryptoMark your calendar: August 7th at 10 AM!

The dawn of a new era in crypto is upon us! Circle invites you to an exclusive webinar, “The GENIUS Act Era Begins,” featuring industry titans Dante Disparte and Corey Then.

Be among the first to decode the U.S.’s groundbreaking federal payment stablecoin framework. Discover how the GENIUS Act will reshape crypto innovation, revolutionize regulation, and potentially unlock unprecedented opportunities.

Don’t get left behind. Reserve your spot now and prepare to navigate the future of finance.

Attention FTX Claim Holders: Mark August 15th on your calendar! This is the record date for the next distribution to eligible Class 5 (Customer Entitlement), Class 6 (General Unsecured and Convenience) Claim holders who’ve met all predistribution requirements. Don’t miss out! Ensure your eligibility is confirmed before this critical date.

• Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.

• Macro

• Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July consumer price inflation data.

• Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.39%
• Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.24%
• Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
• Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.32%
• Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico’s central bank, Banco de México, announces its monetary policy decision.

• Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8% August 8th marked more than just another day on the calendar; it signaled a shakeup at the Federal Reserve. Governor Adriana D. Kugler’s departure ignited an early vacancy on the Board of Governors, handing President Trump a golden opportunity to reshape the nation’s central bank through a crucial nomination. The stakes? The future of monetary policy itself.

• Earnings(Estimates based on FactSet data)

• Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
• Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
• Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market
• Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
• Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
• Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
• Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
• Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
• Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls Arbitrum DAO is on the cusp of extending its alliance with Entropy Advisors, potentially injecting a hefty $6 million and 15 million ARB tokens into the ecosystem’s engine for another two years, commencing September 2025. The vote, closing August 7, could solidify Entropy’s role in steering Arbitrum’s treasury, sculpting incentive strategies, bolstering data infrastructure, and fueling overall ecosystem expansion. Will the DAO give Entropy the green light to continue its pivotal work?

BendDAO’s lifeline? A fiery proposal to incinerate 50% of treasury BEND tokens is on the table, aiming to reignite the platform. Will restarting lender rewards and fueling monthly buybacks with 20% of protocol revenue be enough to save the day? The fate of BEND hangs in the balance. Cast your vote before August 10th.

1inch DAO is considering a bold move: a $1.88 million investment in high-profile crypto events worldwide. Picture 1inch flexing its muscles at nine key global gatherings through late 2025. The goal? Supercharge developer interest, forge crucial alliances with institutions, and ignite wider adoption across blockchain giants like Ethereum and Solana. The clock is ticking – cast your vote before August 10th to decide if 1inch will seize this opportunity to become a dominant force in the crypto landscape.

• Aug. 6, 1 p.m.: Livepeer to host a fireside on Twitter and Discord.
• Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to host a governance call.
• Aug. 8, 11:30 a.m.: Axie Infinity to host a town hall on Discord.
• Unlocks
• Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.32 million.
• Aug. 12: Aptos

APT

$4.2573 + Aug. 15: Avalanche

AVAX

$21.98 + Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $14.77 million. + Aug. 15: Sei

SEI

$0.2860 + Aug. 16: Arbitrum

ARB

$0.3845 + Aug. 18: Fasttoken

FTN

$4.5764 * Token Launches + Aug. 6: Worldcoin

WLD

$0.9382

Conferences

Navigate the evolving world of crypto at the CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly State of Crypto). This exclusive, oneday event in Washington, D.C. connects legal minds, compliance experts, and regulatory leaders with the policymakers shaping the future of digital assets.

Limited seats are available. Claim your spot and save 10% with code CDB10 before August 31. Don’t miss this chance to influence the conversation.

• Day 3 of 3: The Science of Blockchain Conference 2025 (Berkeley, California)
• Day 1 of 2: Blockchain Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Day 1 of 5: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
• Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
• Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

Pump.fun is back on top! A tidal wave of new Solana tokens flooded the market, with Pump.fun launching a staggering 13,690 in a single day. While LetsBonk.fun put up a fight, launching 13,392, Pump.fun seized the crown as king of Solana token creation, according to Dune Analytics. The Solana token launch arena is heating up.

While Pump held the lead in overall token count, LetsBonk dominated the daily trading arena, flexing its muscles with a staggering $87.7 million volume – eclipsing Pump’s $82.4 million and proving that sometimes, it’s not about size, but how you play the game.

“Pump’s back, baby! And so is its namesake token. The PUMP token is staging a comeback, surging nearly 18% in the last week to $0.003247. While still licking its wounds from a 52% drop since its ICO glory days, this pump hints at a possible rally.”

Last month, Pump ignited the crypto world with a blazing-fast ICO, raking in $600 million in a mere 12 minutes. Now, on-chain sleuths have spotted an intriguing development: a multimillion-dollar buyback initiated by Pump. Could this strategic move be the key to calming the market and solidifying investor confidence?

LetsBonk: Fueling the BONK Fire. Born from the Bonk community and supercharged by Raydium’s LaunchLab, LetsBonk ignites BONK token burns with 50% of its fee revenue. It’s not just about BONK; LetsBonk also champions BONKsol and other innovative projects blazing trails across the Solana ecosystem.

Solana’s feeling the heat. Base is stealing its thunder as the go-to launchpad, boasting more token creations. Why the sudden shift? Base cleverly plugged into Zora and Farcaster, turning social buzz into tradable ERC-20 tokens, a recipe Solana hasn’t quite cracked.

Solana reigns supreme in the memecoin arena for now. But a seismic shift is brewing: Base is exploding, becoming the go-to launchpad for the wildest memecoin experiments and community-fueled token crazes.

Derivatives Positioning

• Altcoin futures are losing steam. Open interest in the top 10 coins, excluding Bitcoin, plummeted 4-10% in the last 24 hours, signaling a significant capital exodus. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s open interest is holding steady, suggesting investors are flocking back to the relative safety of the leading cryptocurrency.

“Funding rates are flashing green, currently perched above a 5% annualized rate for most top tokens, signaling a market teeming with bullish optimism. But beware: this long-heavy landscape is also ripe for a swift and brutal long squeeze if prices falter.”

Bitcoin’s CME futures are flashing red, signaling a capital exodus. Open interest in the standard 5 BTC contracts has plunged to depths unseen since late April. Meanwhile, the BTC and ETH futures basis is stuck in neutral, range-bound between a lackluster 5% and 10%, offering no hope for a breakout.

Deribit’s options market is flashing red: BTC and ETH risk reversals signal bearish sentiment through October. Paradigm’s OTC desk witnessed a surge in BTC put option rollovers, suggesting institutional investors are hedging against a potential downturn.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.237% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $114,105.72 (24hrs: -0.55%)
• ETH is up 1.39% at $3,626.69 (24hrs: -1.34%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% at 3,768.88 (24hrs: -2.33%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 2.93%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0086% (9.3699% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 98.73
• Gold futures are down 0.56% at $3,415.60
• Silver futures are unchanged at $37.80
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.6% at 40,794.86
• Hang Seng closed unchanged at 24,910.63
• FTSE is up 0.22% at 9,162.81
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.28% at 5,264.22
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.14% at 44,111.74
• S&P 500 closed down 0.49% at 6,299.19
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.65% at 20,916.55
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 2.03% at 27,570.08
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.71% at 2,590.51
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 4.3 bps at 4.239%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 6,339.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,141.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.31% at 44,374.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.82% (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03177 (+0.38%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 952 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $56.64
• Total Fees: 3.67 BTC / $418,957
• CME Futures Open Interest: 137,790 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 33.7 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.53%

Technical Analysis

Binance-listed ETH/BTC pair. (TradingView)

“Ether’s gearing up for another Bitcoin battle! The ETH/BTC daily chart is flashing a bullish flag, signaling a brief pit stop before another potential surge. Think of it as a coiled spring – the longer it rests, the higher it might leap!”

“A decisive break above the flag pattern could uncork a fresh surge of Ether’s outperformance against Bitcoin, potentially reigniting the ETH/BTC rally.”

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $375.46 (-3.54%), +0.87% at $378.71 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $297.99 (-6.34%), +1.41% at $302.18
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $153.93 (-6.61%), -1.3% at $151.93
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.68 (-4.19%), -0.58% at $27.52
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.62 (-2.62%), unchanged in pre-market
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.13 (-2.54%), unchanged in pre-market
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.08 (+3.15%), -0.43% at $14.02
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.83 (+1.98%), +0.37% at $10.87
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.85 (+0.08%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.87 (-1.41%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.9 (-2.27%), +0.69% at $29.10
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $20.23 (+5.69%), -1.33% at $19.96

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$196.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $53.63 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $73.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $9.12 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.57 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Ether: daily exchange flows. (Coinglass)

• The chart shows daily net inflow of ether into centralized exchanges.
• Recently, there have been large outflows, a sign of investors accumulating the cryptocurrency on the dip.

While You Were Sleeping

Bitcoin ETFs Suffer Fourth Day of Outflows Amid Stagflation Jitters

Bitcoin ETFs are hemorrhaging funds, marking their fourth consecutive day of net outflows as U.S. economic anxieties intensify. Fears of stagflation – a toxic cocktail of rising inflation and economic stagnation – are gripping markets, triggered by Tuesday’s U.S. ISM services PMI data. The report painted a grim picture of tarifffueled inflation, sluggish employment, and trade disruptions, casting a long shadow over risk assets, including tech stocks and crypto. Is this the beginning of a prolonged bear market, or just a temporary blip on the radar? Investors are clearly voting with their feet, seeking shelter from the potential storm.

Subhead: With a potential 39% levy looming over $38 billion in trade, a showdown with Senator Rubio could determine whether Switzerland dodges a crippling blow to its gold and pharmafueled economy.

The Swiss President is heading to Washington D.C. for a highstakes meeting with Senator Marco Rubio on Wednesday, as a proposed 39% tariff threatens to detonate a major trade war. The bone of contention: a hefty $38 billion U.S. trade deficit largely fueled by Swiss gold and pharmaceutical exports. Analysts warn that the tariff could shave off a full percentage point from Switzerland’s economic output, making this meeting a critical juncture in transatlantic trade relations. Can diplomacy avert disaster, or is Switzerland about to take a hit?

Defiance’s betting against MicroStrategy (MSTR) is paying off big. Their 2x Short MSTR ETF skyrocketed 19% last week, fueled by a $16.3 million influx over the last six months. Meanwhile, bulls are running for the exits, ditching its bullish counterpart, painting a bleak picture for MSTR’s Bitcoinheavy strategy. Is this the canary in the coal mine for Bitcoin’s trajectory?

Beijing has sounded the alarm on Worldcoinstyle iris scanning, branding the biometric collection method a potential national security threat. The Ministry of State Security fears incentivized iris scans could become a Trojan Horse, allowing foreign entities to siphon off sensitive biometric data. The concern? Widespread surveillance abuse and the insidious infiltration of deepfake technology orchestrated by foreign intelligence agencies. China views the initiative not as a technological leap, but a highstakes game of espionage played out through the human eye.

RBI Holds Steady as Trump’s Tariff Threats Loom

Despite pressure from a slowing economy, India’s central bank (RBI) is holding its fire, keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.5%. The culprit? A brewing trade war with the U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats, triggered by India’s Russian oil imports, add another layer of uncertainty to an already complex economic picture. The RBI is adopting a waitandsee approach, opting to assess the full impact of earlier rate cuts before making further moves as tariff tensions rise.

Adriana Kugler’s unexpected departure hands Trump a golden opportunity to reshape the Federal Reserve. Imagine a handpicked successor, strategically positioned to nudge Chair Jerome Powell toward rate cuts, potentially signaling a shift in the Fed’s future leadership. Will Trump play the long game, aiming for lasting influence, or seize a quick win with a shortterm appointment? The stakes are high, and the Fed’s independence hangs in the balance.

In the Ether

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