The bitcoin
BTC
$114,295.47
bull, once confidently gazing into the future, is reconsidering its long-term bullish conviction.
The cryptocurrency crystal ball is clouding over. A key indicator, the 180-day skew – which gauges the difference in pricing between long-term bullish (call) and bearish (put) options on Deribit – has flatlined, according to Amberdata. This collapse from a positive skew suggests the once-optimistic long-term market mood has turned neutral. Whispers of a potential bear market in 2026 may be the chill behind this sudden change.
“History rhymes,” notes BloFin’s Griffin Ardern, pointing to a market reset mirroring the prelude to the last Bitcoin winter.
“The Bitcoin bulls have retreated, leaving a worrying void in the options market. Ardern, speaking to CoinDesk, noted the shift: ‘The far-month options market has gone ice cold on Bitcoin. The bullish fervor? Gone. Now, it’s just…neutral.’ Translation? The smart money in options is betting against a sustained Bitcoin rally. Forget new highs anytime soon, the outlook is darkening.'”
“A similar situation last occurred in Jan and Feb 2022,” he added.
Think of options as market mood rings. A put option acts like a safety net, catching you if the underlying asset’s price tumbles. A call option, on the other hand, is a leveraged bet that the price will soar. Now, the “skew” is where it gets interesting – it whispers market secrets. A smile favoring calls? That’s the market flashing a “bullish” grin. But if puts are pricier, beware; a storm might be brewing.
BTC 180-day options skew. (Amberdata/Deribit)
Could the recent neutral shift in the 180-day skew be a strategic play? Imagine structured product issuers, subtly boosting returns by selling call options on their existing spot market positions, a clever yield-generating dance on the higher strike price stage.
The popularity of the so-called covered call strategy could be driving the call implied volatility lower relative to puts.
Macro jitters
Bitcoin wobbled last week, shedding over 4% and almost kissing its old high-water mark of $11,965 goodbye. The culprit? A double whammy of economic data: the Fed’s inflation barometer, the core PCE, ticked upwards in June, while new jobs figures landed with a thud, fueling fears of a sputtering economy and sending shivers down crypto investors’ spines.
The price drop has pushed short-term skews below zero, a sign of traders seeking downside protection through puts.
According to Ardern, the inflationary effects of “supply chain impulses” are already showing up in economic data.
The CPI report offered a fleeting illusion of calm with falling auto prices, but a tidal wave of Western inflation is already crashing on the East Coast. Retailers brace to pass tariff-fueled costs to consumers. Supply chains are battling to absorb the impact, led by wholesalers and commodity firms. Price hikes, though potentially softened or delayed, are inevitable. As Ardern observes, this new reality explains the market’s newfound neutrality regarding long-term BTC options, signaling a wait-and-see approach to the coming economic swells.
According to JPMorgan, President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to elevate inflation in the second half of the year.
“Watch out for a 2025 inflation jolt! Investment bank analysts predict global core inflation will hit 3.4% (annualized) in the latter half of the year, fueled by a U.S. tariff spike. The pain point? Expect cost pressures to concentrate Stateside.”
Stubborn Inflation Clouds the Rate Cut Horizon. Trump’s persistent criticism of the Fed’s 4.25% benchmark rate intensifies as rising inflation threatens to keep borrowing costs elevated, potentially delaying relief for consumers and businesses.
Tuesday’s trading bell brings more than just numbers; it delivers a critical glimpse into the inflation lurking within America’s service sector via the ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Consider this your sneak peek behind the economic curtain, revealing pressures bubbling beneath the surface of a massive slice of the US economy. But the week’s economic drama doesn’t end there. Brace yourselves for the release of July’s CPI and PPI data – the grand finale in this inflationary showdown.
Read more: Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K This Year, But 2026 Will Be Painful: Elliott Wave Expert
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