But the recent statements by US President Donald Trump about potential candidates for the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve have quickly led to a shift in market direction and opinion polls.
After Trump’s comments, the likelihood of Kevin Hassett, a long-time candidate, becoming Fed Chairman significantly declined; the dollar strengthened; gold and silver prices suffered sharp short-term declines.
Trump, referring to his remarks today, said that “I wanted Hassett to remain in my current role on the White House National Economic Council (NEC), not as Federal Reserve Chair”. He is very good on television, and I want him to remain in his current position.’ Hassett has a strong voice with the same penchant as Mr McKinley at The TimesOnline for ‘The most important thing that can be said about it was when we were talking down from our TV shows of this point where they are not going backwards or who would have been better than me? But we’ll see, Trump said, adding, “Fed officials don’t speak very much, Hassett talks a lot. The US Dollar Index (DXY) quickly rose more than 20 points after these comments, spot gold and silver prices were sharply slashed.
Trump’s statements, too, also impacted market-based expectations about the Fed chairmanship. Kevin Warsh’s probability increased on forecasting platforms, Hassett’d probability dropped. There were also fewer probabilities of other names, including Christopher Waller, Rick Rieder and Michelle Bowman who continued to be listed with less likely.
There is also a growing question surrounding what will happen to the post-term of current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who has also been in charge. But the Trump administration’s recent toughstance against both the Fed and the Justice Department’s subpoena for a grand jury, has strengthened expectations that Powell could remain on the fed’S Board of Governors after his term ends in May. The term of Powell’s membership in the Fed’S Board of Governors is extending until January 2028, when it serves as a member.
Powell said in a written and video statement released on January 11 that the subpoena was based on his congressional testimony about renovations at the Fed building, “I think this move is part of the wider context of “government pressure and threats” which has been associated with it.” The comments were prompted by speculation in the markets that Powell might remain at the Fed to protect the institution, which was under pressure from this statement.
But if Powell is still on board, Trump’s plan to create a Fed leadership that supports interest rate cuts could be disrupted, analysts say. But this could make you think that there is a sense of “dual authority” in the markets, former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said. The role of Global Macro Director at Northern Trust Asset Management, Antulio Bomfim, said Powell does not want a “shadow chairman” position; however, his remaining on board would be an important balance.
monetary policy in the short term is unlikely to be radical change, with no radical shift of . Last month, the Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points — it’s the third consecutive rate cut in a row — and recent statements have indicated that there is remained largely wait-and-see strategy until inflation and employment data are clearer. But Powell’s presence on board could delay Trump’d plans to add new members to the Fed Board of Governors and gain a majority.
*This is not investment advice.
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