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The threat is not a ‘near crisis’ but’manageable risk, as it assesses the potential impact of quantum computers on Bitcoin. – ’.
It said the company believes that while it theoretically possible for the Shor algorithm to target Bitcoin’s ECDSA and Schnorr signature schemes, “the technological capacity required to realize this risk in practice is not yet present; a prediction that this will take at least ten years.”
CoinShares’ analysis of the Bitcoin network shows that security architecture is based on authorization via elliptic curves and SHA-256-based hash functions, according to its definition of “the bitcoin network” (along with other encryption). Despite the fact that some cryptographic assumptions are weakened by quantum computers, they do not change the 21 million $BTC supply limit or “bypass” the proof-of-work mechanism. In contrast, in most modern address types such as P2PKH and P2,SH public keys are hidden until the spending is done (a significant risk limiting factor). The company claims that “25% of the supply is at risk” are overreacting temporary and mitigable threats, claiming in an attempt to make it clear.
The number of a numerical framework on the scale of risk was another key to the report’s emphasis on . It added that about 1. 6–1’ . A large number of older P2PK addresses (mostly small balances) hold 7 million $BTC (about 8% in the total supply) with public keys visible to them. CoinShares reports the number of UTXOs that could put some selling pressure on the market is just about 10,200 $BTC. The most optimistic quantum scenarios would be the cost and time of breaking the remaining assets individually, which is extremely inefficient.
During an analysis of the timeline, it was stated that “a quantum computer which could break the secp256k1 curve in less than one year would need 10 to 100 thousand times the number of logical qubits currently present.” The term “short-term attacks” (such as those that targeted mempool operations and produced results in less than 10 minutes) were considered technically impossible for decades. The long-term, multi-year attack scenarios of attacks were theoretically more realistic within a decade and still had significant engineering challenges.
CoinShares also discussed possible solutions for the . In addition, it noted that aggressive measures such as soft or hard forks could transition to quantum-resistant (QR) address formats would be proactive security, increase investor confidence and protect against unexpected technological advances. But it added that such steps are a risk of error due to untested cryptography, could be inefficiently used with limited development resources and may even lead to property rights and network neutrality debates over lost/dormant coins.
*This is not investment advice.
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