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A regulatory crackdown on products officials says operates like illegal betting, with Brazil blocking access to prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
When the government concluded that they broke betting rules passed by Congress, Finance Minister Dario Durigan said Friday that telecom regulator Anatel closed down 27 prediction market platforms. Earlier in Brazil by early Friday afternoon, the sites of Kalshi and Polymarket were offline.
The move follows a new National Monetary Council rule that limits derivatives to economic and financial benchmarks like price indexes, interest rates and exchange rate. A legal derivatives framework was not applicable for contracts related to sports, online gaming, politics, elections, cultural events and social outcomes.
A technical note from Brazil’s Finance Ministry said that the prediction markets are based on binary event contracts where users take yes or no positions on future outcomes. The ministry cited platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as among the most prominent examples in the world, saying that their structure overlaps with fixed odds betting.
Presidential chief of staff Miriam Belchior said the government wanted to stop an unregulated betting market from rooting, while economic reforms secretary Regis Dudena said prediction markets had been ‘likely described as financial products but like betting in practice’.
This decision also bolsters Brazil’re status as world regulator, who struggle with the process of classification of predictions markets. In January 2025, Brazil’s regulated online betting market was launched; officials said the current law only allows fixed odds betting tied to real world sports events and online games (police, cultural and other event based markets are outside the legal framework).
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