Coinbase Report: Crypto Markets Show Bottoming Signals as Macro Risks Ease

The research by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode suggests that crypto markets are in a stabilization phase as sentiment is improving, while stronger on-chain signals support ‘a near-term bottom’. Although the geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty still shape risk appetite, analysts say there are several indicators that point to conditions that could help recovery later in the second quarter.

The first quarter of 2026, under pressure across the digital assets, total crypto market capitalization excluding stablecoins dropped 18 percent. Nonetheless, in the same period, stablecoin supply increased from $308 billion to $318 billion. That raise suggests capital did not exit crypto markets entirely, indicating that the money was not fully exited by that increase. Some investors seem to be waiting on the sidelines for stronger confirmation before re-investing funds, instead of .

Bitcoin’s investor sentiment has also risen as well. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric, which has been moved from a fear phase to optimism in Glassnode data shows the net unrealised profit and loss metrir of Bitcoin.

Conversely, 73 per cent of institutional investors and 71% of non-institutional investors think Bitcoin is undervalued. But that shift strengthens the argument against reducing downside risks may be increasingly limited, such as at risk of s.

On-Chain Data Points to Accumulation

A better market structure is backed by multiple blockchain signals that support the more constructive model of markets. Bitcoin price soared over the past three months as bitcoin supply fell 37% in the first quarter of 2013. Supply for more than a year, however, increased by 1% over one year. That trend often reflects less speculative activity and more conviction of long-term holders, who tend to be in the same position.

In addition to the asset in an accumulation zone, Bitcoin’s profitability metrics now place it in a “accumulation zone” for its assets. valuations near historically good levels, the MVRV framework and supply-in-profit data suggest valuation. The Puell Multiple also fell to 0 as did the Pull Multiple. A state commonly associated with market bottoms often characterized by signaling miner revenues, which is still below long-term norms, remains 7 signalling mineR revenues.

Ethereum Sees Long-Term Holders Strengthen Position

Apart from Bitcoin, Ethereum was structurally improved despite being less than good at performing well. In the first quarter, supply held for less than three months fell 38% while long-term supply rose 1% and long term supply was 1 percent. That transition indicates weakened hands exited from the market and patient investors raised holdings of more shares, while patient investor took up holding in that shift.

In addition, Ethereum’s NUPL slipped near the transition from Capitulation to Hope, suggesting sentiment may be stabilising after heavy selling pressure. Analysts also cited growing asset differentiation as one of the most important themes, saying that Ethereum’s future cycles may depend more on utility and adoption than broad speculative flows.

Consequently, investors are increasingly interested in whether Ethereum can benefit from better regulatory clarity and long-term network demand as market conditions normalize.

Macro Risks Still Shape Market Direction

Although macro conditions are still dominant drivers, even if the technical signals are stronger, it is not necessarily that of any major driver. In a move to get down the S&P 500, Bitcoin’s relationship with the went up to 0 as it reached 0-. 58, strengthening its increasing tolerance for wider risk markets. Meanwhile, uncertainty associated with Middle East tensions and oil disruptions continue to erode growth expectations.

The International Finance (IMF) now estimates global GDP growth at 3. 1 per cent for 2026, down from 3. 4.4 per cent of s. Yet, some private forecasts suggest growth could be a slow down to 1 in the long term of . If energy shocks are worse, 4% of . And that risk, however, still limits aggressive positioning.

Additionally, analysts cited two internal crypto themes that are worth watching; advance on the CLARITY Act and development in post-quantum Cryptography defenses. Neither would affect market structure over the medium term, as it may be with both s.

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