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Gold glittered this week, shaking off pre-Thanksgiving doldrums to surge over 2%. Fueling the rally? Growing whispers of a Federal Reserve rate cut, turning the precious metal into an investor magnet.
With the Fed’s blackout period starting on Saturday, investors will now shift focus to incoming US data.
Gold Rises as Fed Doves Grow Louder
Gold opened the week strong as traders reassessed the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December.
The market held its breath late last week as Fed Governor Stephen Miran signaled a potential shift. Should his vote prove the tipping point, Miran indicated support for a more modest 25 bps rate cut. This marks a significant departure from earlier meetings, where he championed a bolder 50 bps reduction, leaving analysts to question the forces influencing his evolving perspective.
New York Fed Chief John Williams hinted at a potential policy pivot, suggesting the Fed’s grip on the economy might loosen soon. While acknowledging current monetary policy as “modestly restrictive,” Williams implied the door is open for a near-term adjustment, fueling speculation of impending easing measures.
Gold surged over 1.5% on Monday, then tiptoed higher Tuesday before hitting a wall. Private sector job losses are mounting. ADP data shows a chilling 13,500 jobs evaporated weekly leading up to November 8.
Gold to silver ratio (GTS) broke down a 14-year rising support. Immediate support comes at 72. Gold’s soaring to $4,500? Buckle up, silver’s riding shotgun to at least $62! Whispers on the street say next week could be the starting gun. GTS 72 is the key to unlock massive growth. Get ready for liftoff.
This post is not an investment advice… pic.twitter.com/3rLptnAwpu Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) November 28, 2025
Hold the presses! New numbers just dropped, and they’re painting a surprisingly rosy picture of the US job market. Initial jobless claims took an unexpected dip, landing at a cool 216,000 for the week ending November 22nd. That’s 6,000 fewer Americans filing for unemployment compared to the previous week. Is this a sign the economy is defying expectations, or just a blip on the radar? Stay tuned as we unpack what this means for your wallet and the future of work.
September’s durable goods orders defied gravity, climbing 0.5% and eclipsing the anticipated 0.3%. However, this economic blip barely registered on the Fed’s radar. Gold, unphased, stood its ground above $4,100, a glittering island of stability before the holiday storm.
Trading remained thin on Friday, but Gold stayed near the upper end of its weekly range.
Gold Investors Turn to US Data
With Fed officials silenced until their December huddle, Wall Street’s gaze sharpens on incoming US data, now the sole whisperer of a potential rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign roughly an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut in December.
Monday kicks off with a jolt: the ISM Manufacturing PMI. All eyes are glued to the employment index. A number north of 50? Buckle up. That could send the US dollar soaring and clip gold’s wings (XAU/USD).
Wednesday brings the ISM Services PMI into the spotlight. A dip under 50 spells contraction, potentially sending shockwaves through the USD and offering Gold a safety net.
US Economic Calender For the First Week of December
All eyes on Thursday’s Challenger Job Cuts report. October’s staggering 153,074 layoffs a 22-year high sent shockwaves through the market. Now, a dramatic reversal could soothe anxieties about the labor market’s stability and potentially give the USD a much-needed boost.
Friday’s PCE Price Index release from the BEA offers a glimpse into September’s economic past, not the present. Don’t expect fireworks; the data is already stale and unlikely to ignite market volatility.
Gold Technical Analysis
The short-term technical view remains constructive, though momentum has not strengthened further.
Gold is consolidating gains above $4,125, a key support level marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The precious metal is floating above its 20-day Simple Moving Average, suggesting bullish sentiment. The RSI, hovering around 60, indicates positive momentum, though a period of sideways movement hints at a potential pause before the next surge.
Gold Price Chart
Bitcoin’s got a floor at $4,125, but watch out below! The 20-day SMA lurks at $4,085, followed by the 50-day at $4,030, and a key Fibonacci level at $3,970 threatens to pull it down further. Bulls need to break through $4,245 to get started. Clear that, and $4,300 and $4,380 become the next targets.
Thanks for reading Gold Weekly Forecast: Bulls Show Interest as Fed Cut Odds Grow
